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Indications of the challenges government finance will be facing this year

"The question now is whether Mr Mboweni meant the repo rate would not be reduced further, or that further rate cuts would be limited in total"

Readers of this series of commentaries might remember that in March I spoke out against the quibbling about whether or not South Africa would enter a technical recession, and stated that the focus should rather be on reviewing a workable long-term growth strategy for the economy.

In May I argued that in the short term the global economy should bounce back from the excessive decline in economic activity since the fourth quarter of 2008, but that this would be followed by an extended period of relatively low growth, which the South African economy would not escape.

In the interim new data have confirmed that South Africa is indeed in its first recession since 1992 and that the downswing has been severe.

During the recession in the early nineties, GDP fell by 0.5% in the first two quarters, although the eventual decline over a period of three years from the high to the low amounted to around 5% of GDP.

By contrast, in the current recession GDP declined by 2.1% within two quarters and although a further decline is likely, it seems as if the total decline will be less than in 1989 - 1992.

Another distinct feature of the current recession is the speed at which the impact thereof has widened. While only three of the ten sectors distinguished in the GDP figures (with a combined contribution of 30.7% to GDP) recorded negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2008, this was the case for seven sectors (which accounted for 77.8% of GDP) in the first quarter of 2009. Only two sectors, namely mining and manufacturing, accounted for 80% of the decline in GDP.

But then three sectors with a combined contribution of 33.6% to GDP recorded negative growth in the third quarter of 2008 - all that saved the situation was a robust contribution by agriculture.

What do all these figures mean? Firstly, that the South African economy was already in 'n cyclical downswing when the global economic crisis hit, and that the non-agricultural sector has been in recession since the third quarter of 2008.

Secondly, that the international financial crisis has resulted in the recession being much sharper and deeper than it would have been otherwise.

And thirdly, that a sustained recovery in the South African economy depends on developments in the international economy, which is facing a long period of adjustment.
 
With regard to the cyclical aspect, the policy actions taken should soon make a difference. Lower interest rates, together with increased government spending and moderate tax relief, will result in higher domestic demand over time.

Already there are signs that the adjustment of inventories in the manufacturing sector is coming to an end, with new orders increasing relative to existing inventories.

Global data also show that the global economy is bottoming out and the first signs of the bounce-back referred to above are already evident.

There is no quick fix, and the current impatience with economic policy is therefore uncalled for. This also applies to the pressure on the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates drastically.

I wholeheartedly agree with the governor of the Reserve Bank, Mr Tito Mboweni, that further significant rate cuts are unlikely - inflation simply remains too high.

However, I must say I do have a problem with the way in which this very important statement was made.

In my opinion any indication of the future policy stance should not be given by way of a cursory remark during the question-and-answer session following the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

It should be part of the official written statement so that it can be duly debated by the committee and the wording carefully considered in order to send out a clear, unambiguous message.

The question now is whether Mr Mboweni meant the repo rate would not be reduced further, or that further rate cuts would be limited in total, or whether he meant any further reductions would be smaller, say 50 basis points, depending on new data. In contrast to many of those who attended the news conference, I suspect he meant the latter.

In the meantime we have also had the first indications of the challenges government finance will be facing this year.

Figures for April released by the National Treasury show that government revenue from VAT was R2.2 billion less than in April last year. Total revenue from tax was R1.7 billion less.

Although the fact the Easter weekend was in April this year whereas it was in March last year could have played a role in the decline along with the general election, it is an early indication of the pressure that will be put on government revenue this year.

Therefore there is no scope for increased spending apart from that already announced in the budget, and the obvious answer is rather to apply the available funds more effectively.